Analysis | Is the world ready for President DeSantis and Florida’s foreign policy?

Analysis | Is the world ready for President DeSantis and Florida’s foreign policy?


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A disappointing night for most Republicans turned into a very good night for a Floridian. Not only did Governor Ron DeSantis win a second term in Tuesday’s midterm elections, but he did so by a large margin — he even won Miami-Dade County, the first time a Republican has taken so many urban voters in two decades.

The findings reinforced many expectations that DeSantis will run for president in 2024 – a situation that has already raised tension with another Florida Republican, former President Donald Trump. And for some Democrats, the double-digit victories witnessed by not only DeSantis but Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio on Tuesday severely ended the chapter in which the state could be seen as a swing state.

The midterm vote has been closely watched abroad, with European allies, in particular, breathing a sigh of relief that Trump-aligned Republicans have performed relatively poorly. In a statement cited by my colleagues, German politician Reinhard Butekofer wrote his agreement that “the pessimistic assumption that Donald Trump will become President of the United States again in 2024 has become somewhat unrealistic.”

But Tuesday’s findings opened up another possibility: President DeSantis. What does that mean for the world? In some ways, that may seem more plausible to many than Trump or another Trump alternative. But DeSantis would also be the first Florida-born president of the United States — and if Democrats give up the sunshine state for Republicans, the broader impact on US foreign policy could be significant.

Here are three things to consider:

DeSantis is not Trump. He may not always act this way, but DeSantis’ resume is more of a useless Republican civil servant than Trump the bombastic businessman-turned-politician to arson.

In some ways, DeSantis’ background makes him appear more like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, whose interventionist tendencies sometimes ran counter to Trump’s.

Despite his relatively modest upbringing, DeSantis moved from Jacksonville to Yale, before attending Harvard Law School. He went to work as an attorney for the US Navy, served at the base at Guantanamo Bay and deployed to Iraq. When he returned, he held the position of federal attorney general before winning two terms in the House of Representatives.

It is a fairly typical career path for an American politician. Reflecting this, DeSantis focused largely on domestic policy in the House and later as a governor, but most of what he said about foreign policy fits well with pre-existing standards, rather than Trump’s often personalized style.

DeSantis condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and criticized President Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. It is also vehemently opposed to traditional opponents of the United States such as Iran, particularly opponents The nuclear agreement with that countryin addition to new competitors such as China, pledged to beThe most pro-Israel ruler in America.

Weaker-than-expected GOP results are calming nerves in Europe — for now

However, he is a Florida man. Unlike Trump, who was born wealthy in New York City and became a late resident, DeSantis is a real Florida man. And to some extent, it lives up to the reputation, particularly of paying extra attention to foreign issues near to many Floridians: including Cuba, VenezuelaAnd the Colombia and Haiti.

He claims to be not a fan of rules and big government. Florida’s governor first gained real national attention when he pushed a controversial laissez-faire approach to COVID-19. This approach put DeSantis at odds with WHO guidelines, even if it wasn’t quite as combative as Trump’s move to withdraw the United States from that body. (Most accounts of Florida’s period during the pandemic suggest that DeSantis’ policies were neither the success he portrayed nor the disaster his critics fear.)

Unlike Trump — who still has a reputation as a deal-maker — DeSantis may be tougher and less open to persuasion. Profiles repeatedly indicated that he had little personal charm or interest in the social functions that many politicians have. Any of the world leaders seeking a friendship with this man may end up with a cold shoulder.

DeSantis is happy to use loud rhetoric and even harsh stunts to make his point. He’s ferried Venezuelan immigrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard in an effort to co-opt the Liberals and fights with Disney over gay rights – breaking Republican orthodoxy to complain about corporate power. He said France would collapse if Russia invaded and sided with Elon Musk to beat Ukrainian leaders after the US billionaire suggested Kyiv needed to negotiate a peace deal with Russia.

And while DeSantis appears to have accepted the reality of the potential impact of climate change on Florida, he preferred spending money on climate adaptation rather than actually mitigating the problem.

As one critic recently put it, his plan was to “spread out big impact repair contracts on expensive waterfront properties while ignoring basically everything, and everyone else.” If the United States took this approach, it could affect everywhere in the world.

What the midterm results mean for Trump, Dientis, and the 2024 election

What would happen if Democrats abandoned Florida voters? If DeSantis is on the ballot in the 2024 presidential race, he will likely lead the state — long considered — with ease. Democrats, already skeptical about their chances in the state, might consider it a lost cause.

This can have significant effects. Much of Florida’s Hispanic population has fled extremist or socialist regimes in places like Cuba and Venezuela, which have influenced the politics of Republicans and Democrats vying for votes in the state.

But some believe Democrats are already beginning to move forward. Sure, Biden’s foreign policy appears to be a far cry from being proprietary to Florida’s Latino voters. His administration eased sanctions on Venezuela, eased restrictions on Cuba, and removed the Colombian rebel group FARC from the list of foreign terrorist organizations.

On Tuesday, the same day the vote was taking place in the United States, climate envoy John F. Kerry held a brief meeting with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Egypt. Although US officials have downplayed the interaction, it comes at an interesting time: The Biden administration has been easing sanctions related to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, as energy prices have soared amid the war in Ukraine and tensions with Saudi Arabia, the oil market giant, which increased disturbance. market.

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