College Football Daily Fantasy Helper: Saturday 11/26/22
With daily fantasy football being so popular, it was only a matter of time before it translated to the college level.
FanDuel now offers college fantasy football contests now in most states, and there’s an NFL twist as well. You pick a quarterback, two running backs, three wideouts (which can include tight ends) and a “SuperFLEX” that can be any of those positions.
Finding target data for college pass catchers can be difficult, so finding out which players are on the field and getting the job can make all the difference. Of course, there are more random outcomes in college, so balance the game scenarios accordingly! A monster first half of your run can lead to a bagel in the second.
Thanksgiving weekend is great for football because we have two days of pro football and two days of college. It ends on Saturday, and this is undoubtedly the best faculty of the year. Elite rivalries are underway, headlined — of course — by the de facto title elimination game in Columbus.
Note: All stats are from PFF.com. All tables can be sorted by any category.
|With Carolina||Clemson||– 14.5||51.5||18.5||33|
|W Virginia||Oklahoma St||+8.5||62.5||35.5||27|
|Mich. State||Penn State||– 19.5||52.5||16.5||36|
I wish I could tell you that Saturday’s Elite Matches were matchups, but I can’t.
The best daily fantasy contest is a no-nonsense affair between Central Florida and South Florida. That total tops 70. Tennessee and Vanderbilt also don’t have much to play for, but they are two up-tempo offenses that have combined for 64.5 points.
We have Southern Cal back on this list though. They still have a high team total against Notre Dame’s elite defense.
There are two complete crossover games for me. Georgia and Alabama are gigantic favorites where Georgia Tech’s and Auburn’s anemic offenses should have nothing against elite defenses. The starters simply won’t have two halves to work with in those games.
Defensive matchups and rankings
Note: Higher numbers mean easier matches for the opposing team. Lower numbers mean better ranking and harder matches.
The worst overall defense in the FBS might be South Florida. They are bottom three in yards per attempt (YPA) allowed in both phases. Vanderbilt, Kansas, Southern Cal, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia are the other defenses on this list that have really struggled against the pass and rush.
However, there are elite defenses. I mentioned Alabama and Georgia, but Michigan and Ohio State absolutely headline this list in terms of stifling each other’s daily fantasy potential. Penn State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oregon State and Iowa State are the others who are above average facing both phases.
Teams we would ideally like to target in the field are South Carolina, Texas A&M, Auburn and Oklahoma. On the contrary, we’d rather target the passing offense against Tennessee, Oregon and Louisiana State.
Again, as much as I’d like to jump right into the Heisman candidates on the list, John Rhys Plumlee ($11,000) is the clear top option here.
USF’s defense is absolutely terrible, and Plumlee is a dual-threat quarterback who is averaging 77.7 yards rushing on the ground this year. His only path to failure would be his run which would take all the results.
The reality is like that Caleb Williams ($12,200) and Bo Nix ($11,500) are in brutal matchups with top-30 pass defenses — and solid opposing running games. They might watch more of Saturday’s contests than usual.
The opportunity cost – aside from salary – for these two is also pretty staggering. We have too Will Howard ($10,600) against the Jayhawks’ swiss cheese defense, and Spencer Sanders ($10,800) can attack the 127th ranked mountain pass defense (in JNA terms).
Howard on the other hand, Jalon Daniels ($9,200) bounced back last week with a modest 17.4 FanDuel points against a tough Texas defense. K-State’s defense should be an easier test.
Joe Milton III ($9,500) was solid enough in Hendon Hooker’s duties to trust him against a weak Commodores defense. I think Mike Wright ($8,300) — despite the wage increase — is also working for a second week in a row as a value addition. He ran for 54.9 yards per contest this year.
Two other values in this table include Garrett Greene ($8,500)who has been outstanding since taking over West Virginia, and a dual-threat gunslinger Donovan Smith ($8,600) should be safe for a modest day assuming Behren Morton sits out with an ankle injury.
It’s strange that you don’t have a five-figure salary with a backlog on such a large list, but Deuce Vaughn ($9,700) is a worthy leading man. He has thrown the ball at least 19 times in four straight entering this solid matchup with KU.
LSU’s 32nd ranked rush defense is too strong for me to consider limited Devon Achane ($9,500) on his salary. Achane has a problem with his feet. I’d rather speak Eric Gray ($9,400) who has appeared on the board for the Sooners on 63.0% of his carries over the past three weeks.
“Game” will require “waiting” on these backgrounds. Status of Blake Corum ($9,000) it affects the potential competitiveness of this game as much as its sustainability. Backup Donovan Edwards ($6,500) is also down for UM, and the same could be said for Ohio State Miyan Williams ($8,300) and Tre’Veyon Henderson ($7,100). if both are sitting, Dallan Hayden ($6,500) is a free square even in this brutal match; he recorded 27 carries last week without them.
Injuries litter the top of the player pool, but Ray Davis ($8,000) is probably the next place from Vaughn and Grey. He has collected 60.6% of Vandy’s career snaps over the past three weeks.
Isaiah Bowser ($7,800) is a decent stack with Plumlee trying to secure pieces of every UCF score — and there could be quite a few. Bowser recorded 44 carries in the last three games to 36 for RJ Harvey ($5,800), so Harvey might be a better dart for the bold. On the other hand, Brian Battle ($7,500) got 19 totes for the Bulls last week.
USC’s new running back is Austin Jones ($7,600). He will be popular after 31.7 FanDuel points against UCLA, but Notre Dame’s stingy defense will be a different test. The Trojans continued to spread the ball around a lot at all levels.
In contrast to Jones, Audrich Estime ($7,400) and Logan Diggs ($6,500) they have too good a matchup to ignore their clear division in the Irish backfield. Diggs had 15 carries last week to Estim’s 11, but that has changed without a predictable pattern all year. I’m leaning towards Esttime due to popularity.
I really fade a good portion of the top of the wide pool — which I almost never plan to do.
Jalin Hyatt ($9,800) he has a crazy salary with Hendon Hooker no longer under center. We don’t even know for sure that the offense will be anywhere near the same level. past him Jordan Addison ($9,500) still only commanded 18.5% of USC’s targets over the past two weeks, and Marvin Harrison Jr. ($9,400) has the toughest matchup in the country with Michigan.
In a game where it’s easy to believe the Cyclones will cover (since Texas Christian never makes anything easy), Xavier Hutchinson ($9,000) has an unmatched load on this table. He’s hitting 35.6% of Iowa State’s field goals this year, including 12.6% per contest over the past three.
If Xavier Weaver ($8,500) is healthy, he’s a phenomenal return option with Plumlee hitting 32.7% target share this year. He is a definite question mark for the gamehowever, what would it bring Jimmy Horn Jr. ($6,300) in the game for the second week in a row. Of course, Ryan O’Keefe ($8,100) he lines up well with his quarterback, Plumlee, given his 27.8% completion percentage this season.
The two best target stocks on this list besides Hutchinson belong to Will Sheppard ($7,800) from Vanderbilt and Notre Dame Michael Mayer ($7,500). Those two offenses run the ball 54.5% of the time, so the salary discount is appropriate. However, both face weak pass defense and are fully viable.
Without Corum, I truly believe Michigan will significantly increase their passing rate, so give them a thumbs up Ronnie Bell ($6,600). Bell’s 26.8% share just hasn’t seen much volume this year.
Marvin Mims ($7,500) is the clear top option for Oklahoma, and Myles Price ($5,900) has been a Smith favorite this year. Price also saw a team-best six targets last week. Other value extensions with at least 10 targets last week also include Cedric Tillman ($8,000), Brennan Presley ($6,700)and Chris Hutson ($5,900) in an otherwise muddy Oregon Ducks tree.
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