Hunter Renfrow was one of the most traded stars of the 2021 NFL season. The 2019 fifth-round pick took full advantage of the Raiders having very little playmaking talent on their roster, and ended up being one of quarterback Derek Carr’s favorite targets all season .
Renfrow was an afterthought for many fantasy managers when it came time to draft last season, but now he’s firmly on everyone’s radar. After being a fantastic free agent find for those lucky enough to land him, Renfrow heads into the 2022 season as one of the best players in the NFL.
But the Raiders went through a lot of changes this offseason, and that could affect Renfrow’s production. They have a new coach in Josh McDaniels and new talent in Davante Adams that could ultimately affect Renfrow’s fantasy prospects for the 2022 season. How productive should Renfrow be expected to be in 2022 with all of these changes? Let’s take a look at his fantasy outlook for the upcoming season and get a better idea of what to expect from Renfrow this season.
Hunter Renfrow’s 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
Hunter Renfrow gradually became more and more trusted with Carr under center, and then when everything seemed to be going downhill for the Raiders, Renfrow stepped up and became Carr’s top target. Renfrow’s 2021 totals (103 REC, 1038 YDS, 9 TD) made him a fantastic fantasy free agent considering not many people drafted him.
Renfrow’s production last season saw him rank as the 13th best fantasy receiver. If you had told anyone that Renfrow would be a top 15 wide receiver when the season started, you would have been laughed at, but he was one of the biggest surprises of the 2021 season.
However, in the 2022 season, Renfrow’s production could come back down to earth a bit. The Raiders reloaded this offseason, and now have a lot more playmaking talent to help Carr and the rest of the offense. Adams is one of the best wide receivers in the league, meaning he will take away targets from Renfrow, and Darren Waller figures to be more involved in the offense after missing six games last season. Josh Jacobs is also a solid receiving option out of the backfield, so Carr will have options unlike last season.
That will take Renfrow away from targets right away. He was targeted so much because Carr often had no one else to throw to. That won’t be a problem Carr will have to deal with in 2022. He’ll have targets available at all times, and while that will increase the overall productivity of the Raiders’ offense, it will decrease Renfrow’s individual productivity.
How much that will affect Renfrow remains to be seen. He should still start every game as the Raiders’ slot receiver, and in PPR leagues, he’ll be the guy Carr looks to when he needs six yards on 3rd and 5. Renfrow will continue to be a big factor in Las Vegas’ offense considering how effective he was in 2021.
But Adams will most likely limit Hunter Renfrow’s ceiling. Adams can get open at all three levels of the field, and regularly commands more than 120 targets per season. There are only so many targets to go around, and chances are some of the targets Renfrow received last season will go to Adams in 2022.
Renfrow will likely be dropped in the 25-30 range in terms of top wide receivers in 2022. With Adams on board and a healthy Waller, it’s not unreasonable to expect Renfrow to draw 128 targets like he did last season. But he still has value, especially in PPR leagues, given his short-yardage prowess and ability to make plays in the red zone.
Renfrow’s floor is set up as a solid slot option that will have plenty of receptions and occasionally find the end zone. Who knows, maybe Carr keeps him involved in the offense like he did last season, and proves his 2021 campaign was no fluke. But chances are that’s not the case. While many receivers have a lot of tight and shaky floors in the range Renfrow will get in the draft, Renfrow’s floor is set, but his upside is limited in 2022.
Renfrow will likely be taken between the 6th and 8th rounds, and could profile as a FLEX option with WR2 upside. Renfrow is a very good insurance policy at wide receiver, but when you’re filling out your bench, there simply may be other options with more upside than Renfrow, which is really what you’re looking for when you’re filling out your bench. Renfrow could be bad fruit if he falls to the plate, but it’s not reasonable to expect a repeat of his 2021 campaign and Hunter Renfrow’s fantasy production should suffer as a result.
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