Written by Eduard Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
The Professor has a stern warning for today’s chapter: Before we generate our own trading hype, it is important that we take a deep breath before researching the value of a trade deadline bet.
Take last season for example: The Dodgers had Max Scherzer and Trea Turner but they didn’t win the pennant even though they both played exceptionally well. The Giants chose Chris Bryant, and although the ball club won 107 games, they failed to advance after the National League series.
However, successes were also present. The Braves needed their mid-season possession in Jorge Soler to win it all (.300/.391/.800 in the World Championship). The Astros made less graceful movements for the bulls, but in September and October, they did so He still ranks ninth in MLB in strikes per nine runs (9.38) and eighth in xFIP (4.23). My main point is always to take the hype with a grain of salt.
Now that you’ve completed your breathing exercises, let’s break down the latest deals, their impact on betting odds and if the investment for this team’s championship opportunities is worth it.
s Luis Castillo to sailors (+3000 to win the World Championship in FOX Bet)
As we’ve discussed in this field, there is no team I was more interested in studying on Deadline Trade than the Mariners team.
Sure enough, they were the first to make a devastating move, acquiring first shooter Luis Castillo of Cincinnati for a few talented prospects.
From a betting perspective, the move slashed a lot of value from Seattle in the futures markets. To win the MLS, the odds of M decreased from +2000 to +1400, and they went from +4000 to +3000 to win the World Championship.
Castillo throws fireballs, as his average ball speed is around 97 mph. He may not have a lot of movement, but he doesn’t, with a crossfire average of .124 and a strike rate of 45.5%. Oddly enough, he has had more successful seasons, as in 2020 with a FIP of 2.65 and over 11 strikes in all nine innings. Either way, it’s a cleat that will help sailors in a big way along the stretch.
There aren’t a lot of starting sticks on the market, and Seattle needed one, so this looks like a win for both teams. Given that the Mariners’ drought had lasted longer than any North American team in the four major men’s sports, it was a move they had to make with a high probability of success.
LF Andrew Benintende to the Yankees (+370 to win the world championship in FOX Bet)
The Bronx bombers have eloped with AL East and are now big favorites to win the pennant. But the move improved the Yankees’ odds of winning the world championship, from the second-shortest at +400 to a tie for the shortest with the Dodgers at +350.
Baseball reference charts earn above average by placement combinations, and the Yankees are ranked 10th on left field, their second-worst ranking before shortstop. Now, New York goes from Joey Gallo, who ranks second in strike rate (38.1%) among all hitters who have appeared on at least 250 plates, to 20th-placed Andrew Benintende (13.3%). He doesn’t have a lot of power but he knows how to hit the base with a .387 OBP. In short, the Yankees have improved dramatically with this trade.
s Josh Hader to Padres (+2200 to win the World Championship in FOX Bet)
The relief pitch isn’t San Diego’s biggest need on Deadline, with their team ranking seventh in the Fielding Independent Pitching Collegiate. But, getting someone of Josh Hader’s caliber to be closer to the ball club is something Padres simply can’t miss, as Padres has more than enough odds to send the Milwaukee way. The Dodgers also have such a huge lead in NL West that the odds of the Padres winning the pennant are unchanged (+1000 in the FOX Bet). The World Championship futures have also not budged in San Diego, currently at +2200.
One reason for the consistency may be that Roar has been so unexpected this season. In every season from 2018 to 2021, his projected hit average ranked 99 percent of all senior shooters. However, his home run is allowed in all nine innings this season which is his highest average of any season (1.85).
In general, few can force hitters to swing and miss more often, and few can throw faster, so the potential is there for Heder to control. Perhaps most importantly, San Diego has many possibilities for its use as a currency, so it’s likely that it hasn’t finished trading. Watch out for the Padres to also go after Juan Soto or Wilson Contreras. If SD lands on another big fish, look for the World Series odds to move significantly.
s Frankie Montas to the Yankees (+370 to win the world championship in FOX Bet)
They may have the best record in the MLS, but that mark didn’t stop the Yankees from being the most active franchise, a day before the trade deadline. Recent moves have included picking primary bowler Frankie Montas and loyalist Lou Trevino of Auckland against four possibilities.
The deals shortened New York’s odds of winning the AL from +175 to +165, but not the world championship. In fact, it has gone from +350 to +370 thanks to Dodgers’ quality of play lately.
Montas’ stats may not impress Yankee fans. For example, fast ball speed Go from an average of 98.2 mph to 96.2 mph Whereas other pitchers shoot more aggressively and hit rate (or hits at least 95 mph) is in the 56th percentile. But, Montas forces a lot of hitters to chase, and his breeze rate is more than 30% on the splitter and slider.
He can too Pass five rounds continuouslyAnd this reliability may be the difference in a series of five or seven games.
1B / OF Tree Mancini to Astros (+450 to win the world championship in FOX Bet)
The biggest name among the players being traded has a new home (so far). Former Oriole Tree Mancini will go to Houston as part of a three-team trade where Astros bowler Jayden Murray collects, while Tampa Bay gets Jose Seri and Baltimore bowlers Seth Johnson and Chase McDermott receive.
But back to Mancini. Houston needed a consistent racket at first base almost as much as any other position, given Yuli Gurriel’s split this season: .243/.293/.392. While Houston’s MLS odds remained steady at +200, the team’s World Championship odds shrank from +475 to +450.
Where Mancini will provide an advantage is the way he handles the four-seat fast balls. run value A method of evaluating the impact of a hitter’s performance, giving runners in base, hitters, and number. Against the four-seat fastballs, Mancini is ranked 16th in the MLB with a running value of +10.
Houston is already ranked 4th in majors at WRC+ (113).. Although they needed a catcher that could strike more consistently, now this offense didn’t contain any glaring weaknesses.
Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist, and assistant professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These feelings prompted him to become a fan of cold drinks. Edward previously worked on local television, particularly for the Fox subsidiary in Dallas, covering the Rangers, Cowboys, and high school football. follow him TTweet embed
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