MLB scale: risers and lows

I’m back for my second week to fill in the barometer to give Eric a well-deserved break. I drew inspiration from one of his columns several months ago, where he compared projected stats to players’ output at the start of the season in an effort to determine the highs and lows of the future. I’ll mostly follow this model in this edition, picking one (or a few) basic stats to prove my case in terms of a player’s potential skills and production during the last two months of the season.

risers

Alex Verdugored socks

Key stats: .269 batting average vs. .292 xBA; .376 deceleration ratio vs. .445 xSLG; .298 wOBA vs. .335 xWOBA

Verdugo has been cherished predictable stats all season, so much so that he was also brought to the spotlight by Erik a few months ago when he went through a similar workout. Given that his performance hasn’t improved since then, there’s reason to suspect Verdugo as a potential rookie. Unlike other players who underperformed their expected metrics in almost all areas – Christian Walker, Marcel Ozona and Carlos Santana to name a few – Verdugo has a well-balanced GB/FB ratio profile and avoids the blatant hit or volley problem. Instead, generally keep a high hit rate while producing little power. There is reason to believe that this could change.

On a fundamental level, Verdugo’s GB/FB ratio has fallen in each of the past three seasons. He also showed a distinct eye on the plate, which increased his eyes

I’m back for my second week to fill in the barometer to give Eric a well-deserved break. I drew inspiration from one of his columns several months ago, where he compared projected stats to players’ output at the start of the season in an effort to determine the highs and lows of the future. I’ll mostly follow this model in this edition, picking one (or a few) basic stats to prove my case in terms of a player’s potential skills and production during the last two months of the season.

risers

Alex Verdugored socks

Key stats: .269 batting average vs. .292 xBA; .376 deceleration ratio vs. .445 xSLG; .298 wOBA vs. .335 xWOBA

Verdugo has been cherished predictable stats all season, so much so that he was also brought to the spotlight by Erik a few months ago when he went through a similar workout. Given that his performance hasn’t improved since then, there’s reason to suspect Verdugo as a potential rookie. Unlike other players who underperformed their expected metrics in almost all areas – Christian Walker, Marcel Ozona and Carlos Santana to name a few – Verdugo has a well-balanced GB/FB ratio profile and avoids the blatant hit or volley problem. Instead, generally keep a high hit rate while producing little power. There is reason to believe that this could change.

On a fundamental level, Verdugo’s GB/FB ratio has fallen in each of the past three seasons. He’s also shown a discerning eye on the board, increasing his area swing percentage in 2022 by 2.6 percent over his career average. He paired that gain with a 1.5 percent area connection rate. In other words, he got more aggressive on the board but swung and hit the pitches he should be able to do more damage.

With 402 board games this season, Verdugo has only six home runs. According to the xHR metric on Statcast, he’s accrued between seven to 15 times at home – depending on his garden. Verdugo’s profile shortcomings, and specifically his lack of solid connectivity, ensure he wouldn’t be a true hitter, but he deserves better than he’s produced to date.

Josh RogasDiamondbacks

Basic stats: .377 xwOBA over his last 100 PA

During Saturday’s games, Rojas has had the second highest increase in xwOBA in his last 100 games. This alone provides no guarantee that it will continue to produce, but it has built its own communication profile to gain power in ways it hasn’t before. Examples include a top exit speed of 109.1 mph, the best exit speed, an increased launch angle (12.9 degrees), and a 39.5 percent hit rate. He did it all without sacrificing plate discipline, as evidenced by his 100 percentile chase rate.

Rojas has spent most of his career as a utility player, but he may do enough to entice the Diamondbacks to give him a chance to prove himself a successful third base player in 2023 and beyond. At his best, Rojas has a chance of being a significant contributor in many fantasy categories including running, steals, and batting average.

Jose Mirandatwins

Key stats: Miranda has 0.356 xwOBA across his last 100 boards

Admittedly, Miranda’s inclusion has nothing to do with Statcast but more to do with his regular turn and his stellar performance over the past month. In those 100 board appearances, he kept the .340/.392/.574 streak to go along with six home runs, scoring 14 points and 23 RBI points. Not surprisingly given those numbers, the team has found a way to fit Miranda into the lineup, starting him eight times in first base, 10 times in third base, and three times as a designated officiant in the past month while consistently beating him for fifth in the lineup. last week. With Alex Kirillov’s unfortunate ongoing injury fears, the path may become more clear for Miranda to establish himself as a key member of the twins lineup.

stop dylanwhite socks

Base stat: Stop contains 2.68 xERA (91st percentile) and 3.15 SIERA

Only Shohei Ohtani and Clayton Kershaw held xERA scores for a better season than Cease between starts, and the Statcast page is red across the board — except for walk rate. His results have largely matched that, as he currently ranks fifth among beginner shooters with $24. In 11 combined starts between June and July, Cease maintained a 0.57 ERA, which was supported by the remaining 88.7 percent on an adjusted basis. While there will inevitably be a rollback of those signs, his predicted ERA metrics suggest his downfall won’t be drastic.

Most convincing was Cease’s dominance with his slider. It has a pitch value of 24.9 with width, with Max Fried next in line with a value of 9.7. Cease also fully bowed to the power of the pitch, throwing the slider more than fastball in the past two months. It’s no coincidence that he overlapped with one of the most dominant stretches of any pitcher of the season.

Devin Williamsbrewers

Key stats: Williams has 2.00 xERA.

This space was originally reserved for Luis Garcia, although San Diego’s acquisition of Josh Hader clearly changes that account. Williams has the sixth best xERA and elite skill to back it up, highlighted by 41.8K, no home runs allowed this season. His dominance is the reason the Brewers have felt comfortable trading Hader, and it’s not likely that there will be much challenge for Williams’ new role as Milwaukee was closer before the season ended.

they fell

Cole Irvineathletics

Base stats: Irvine has 3.05 ERA and 4.43 xERA

The 1.38 point difference in the Irvine ERA and xERA is the 25th largest difference between the 368 eligible shooters. At first glance, it’s tempting to believe what Irvine does. He’s gone through a very tough set of opponents in his last five starts – he’s faced Houston three times, Toronto and Texas – and yet he’s managed to maintain a 1.85 ERA in that span.

With a deeper dive, there is a strong case looming. Irvine ranks 16th down in xSLG, barrel ratio, fast ball speed and K ratio. The case for him is that he was excellent at home (1.73 ERAs in 62.1 runs), which makes sense given the shooter-friendly nature of the Oakland Coliseum. However, trade is possible, and even if Irvin remains with athletics, his skills will likely catch up to him at some point before the end of the season.

Nelson CruzCitizens

Base stat: .291 xWOBA in his last 100 appearances on the board

Maybe time finally caught up with Cruz. His profile indicates that he simply ran out of bat speed or power. While his plate discipline metrics like zone swing ratio, zone contact ratio, strike rate and gait rate all remained intact, his battered ball skills were shattered. Indicators such as barrel rate, wOBA, ISO and wRC+ have been in steady, but relatively slow, decline for the last three to four seasons, and this process has accelerated in 2022. His barrel rate was at the lowest point in his career by nearly three percentage points. . His wOBA is 49 points worse than his previous career low, and his WRC+ is at its lowest since 2007. His .663 OPS tells the story on its own.

Kevin Gussmanblue jays

Key stats: On July 4, the opposing hitters had a 0.550 wuppa against Fast Bull Gussman.

Gusman suffered an ankle injury in his first game in July after walking away from his foot. The fastball’s pace has been fine ever since, but the hitters did a lot of damage on the field. In the first three months of the season, Gausman had only served once by the heater in the house, but gave up three in July. The hitters hit 0.813 against the field and scored 0.502 in the month.

Unsurprisingly, his results in that period were not positive, most notably the 5.09 era. His skills remain the same (25:4K:BB), so it’s possible that this is just a fluke and poor stretch, something most shooters will struggle with at some point in the season. However, the timing of his injury and his poor performance suggest that Gausman may not currently be working at his full potential.

Rizel IglesiasAngels

Key stats: Iglesias’ speedball is down 1.5mph from last season.

Iglesias allowed five earned rounds across three matches from July 6 to July 12. Since then, he’s gone five straight rounds without goals, which makes it tempting to conclude there’s no cause for concern. However, Iglesias’ fast pace of the ball has been inconsistent throughout the season, as has his use of the field. In April, he sat at 94.7mph with the pitch, before bumping that mark to 95.1 and 95.3 in May and June, respectively. In July, his speed fell again to 94.5 mph. Even at his top speed this season, he’s down about 1.5 mph from last season. This resulted in a 4.04 total ERA, a lower strike rate (32.9 percent) and an increased walking rate (6.2 percent).

As close as possible, Iglesias’ potential production is closely linked to the team’s success. The Angles finished July 6-18, and without a number of key players in the line-up, their season is unlikely to turn out significantly. With potentially limited savings opportunities on the way, Iglesias is no longer promising to deliver an elite pedigree to go along with the handful of saves he’s amassed in the final few months of the season.

Avicel GarciaMarlins

Key stats: Garcia’s 2.6-degree launch angle.

The Garcia has never been the most consistent performer, though we generally know what we’ll get in terms of hard contact rate, strike rate and other basic skills, like launch angle. From 2018 to 2021, Garcia posted a launch angle between 8.7 and 9.6 degrees, and its Xstats have decreased significantly. This year, that mark has fallen to a score of 2.6. The result was just seven home runs, an additional 15 key strokes and a 0.91 ISO across 337 panel appearances.

#MLB #scale #risers #lows

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