TCU vs Texas preview, prediction: Who will win, and why?
The two top 12 ranked teams battle Forty Acres as Texas welcomes the TCU in a battle between Lone Star State ranked rivals in Week 11 college football matches on Saturday.
The 18th CFP in Texas has won four of her last five games, posting a 6-3 aggregate record along with a 4-2 mark in conference games and a chance to beat a team that just moved into the fourth round of the latest College Football playoff rating.
The TCU moved into fourth place in the CFP’s Top 25 poll this week and is the last undefeated team in the Big 12, holding onto the top spot in the league behind the fourth-ranked offensive and attack aggregate in the country.
Here’s what you need to know about Saturday’s game.
TCU vs. Texas Preview and Prediction
how to watch
When: Saturday 12th November
Time: 6:30 p.m. Central time
Television: ABC Network
Stream: fuboTV (start your free trial)
Odds, point spread, bet lines
Game lines provided by SI Sportsbook
point spread: Texans are entering the game as the 7-point tight favorites to defeat the TCU, according to lines in SI Sportsbook.
Above under: 64.5 points
money line: Texas -300, University of California +200
FPI expectation: Texans have a comfortable 73.0 percent chance of winning the game over Horned Frogs, according to the Football Strength Index computers, which simulate team seasons 20,000 times to predict the winners using results and timelines to date. The TCU has a 27.0 percent win percentage, according to the FPI.
Related: TCU vs Texas Picks, Predictions: Week 11 college football odds, spread, streaks
TCU vs Texas: Game Keys
1. Texas wants to run, and they can. Every defense has its sights set on stopping running back Bijan Robinson, but few have managed to do so thus far. Robinson is one of only two FBS players to have both 1,000 yards and 200 yards this season. Robinson is already 1,129 yards off the ground with 12 touchdowns and an average shadow of just under 6 ypc, breaking 100 yards in his last seven straight games. The TCU is a respectable fifth in the Big 12, allowing for 146.6 yards of dash per game and stopping Robinson will be key to avoiding another slow start in the first half.
2. QB Battle. TCU’s Max Duggan ranks fourth in FBS in passing efficiency and has over 65% of his passes in wins over four ranked opponents and has saved some of his most accurate performances in the Texas Series, achieving 2-1 all-time. Three of his receivers have 4 or more TD catches and four of them average over 15 yards per hunt. Quinn Ewers became slightly less efficient in each game, completed only 50% against ranked teams, and completed fewer than 20 passes in each of his last three passes. But he could still find the end zone, averaging 2.17 touchdown points per game this season. Xavier Worthy remains the Ewers’ number one target, capturing 9 of Texas’ 20 TDs in the air.
3. Who wins a close match? The slow start of the first half for the TCU has become a talking point among the analyst class and in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee room. So far, the Frogs have managed to make a comeback by generating momentum with talented skill threats like receiver Quentin Johnston and lead Kendry Miller. TCU is a perfect 3-0 in a single game this year, while the Longhorns are 1-2 in the same position. It’s all at stake for TCU: this has to be the game where you make a statement by building and keeping a lead on the road against a ranked team.
– TCU is the only team to have 4 TDs of at least 62 yards against FBS opponents
Texas is 101st nationwide, allowing 258.1 yards to pass per game
– TCU is first nationwide with 14 TDs over 50 yards
– Texas scored 90% of red zone chances (36 of 40), TD points scored on 25 drives
Frogs are ranked second nationally with an average of 7.36 yards per game
– Texas averages 6 games over 20 yards per game, with at least 4 per game
– TCU is a one-two team with 285 ypg passing, 200 ypg rushing, at least 20 passing TDs, and at least 20 TDs
– Longhorns have 22 plays over 30 yards, with 10 of them in the landing
– TCU is the fourth most improved team nationally, adding 14.4 points to its output per game from last year to this
– Texas is 2-9 and allows more than 30 points under Steve Sarkissian
– TCU scored at least 34 points in the first 9 games for the first time ever
– Long horns are 1-5 when they lose their spinning margin and 6-2 when they win it under Sarkissian
– TCU’s Kendre Miller is the first nationwide to rush to get a TD in 10 games in a row
– Horned Frogs allowed 3 TDs in the second half of the last 4 matches
Who wins and why?
All eyes are on TCU Quentin Johnston’s wide receiver. Duggan’s top goal missed most of last week’s games with an ankle injury and his absence reflected the team’s offensive production: TCU scored a season low in points (34) and passing yards (195).
Obviously, not having Johnston on the field hinders the TCU’s ability to dominate the passing game as much as it can with him, but Duggan still had the arm and goals to set the pace against the weak Longhorns sub-team.
Taye Barber (23 rec, 450 yds, 3 TD) and Derius Davis (28-385-5) more than able to create space and a tight finish Jared Wiley is a solid threat in the center scoring standing at 6-foot-7, records 4 touchdowns from 12 This season’s catch point.
These options, as well as the Frogs’ impulsive ability, can tilt the game in their favour. TCU ranks 13th nationally in running ball and is 5th with 25 touchdowns behind Kendre Miller of 6.6 points and 12 points on the floor.
But the game can be won or lost when the TCU hunt group lines up against Bijan Robinson, a task that makes it easier for Horned Frogs’ defense if they can contain Ewers’ big arm and reduce Longhorns’ attack to one dimension.
College football predictions: TCU 37, Texas 30
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