‘There’s no red wave in the data’: The poll expert who got the mid-range right

‘There’s no red wave in the data’: The poll expert who got the mid-range right

On Tuesday afternoon, gloom continued to emerge from savvy Democratic activists. The party will lose its majority in the House of Representatives, but it will also bid farewell to the Democratic majority in the Senate. The most optimistic thing was that the red wave would be bad news for the president Joe Biden. Just look at 1994, when Newt Gingerich rode the contract with America to the House of Representatives; After two years president Bill Clinton re-elected. or the 2010 midterm elections, when Tea Party Republicans slashed their way to power; After two years president Barack Obama re-elected. Hey, Biden may be personally unpopular, but he has passed a raft of legislation that voters love. So a mid-term survey was expected, but it wouldn’t be the end of the political world for Democrats.

Let me rewrite it as they say in the old press films.

But amid all the entrenched pessimism on Tuesday, there was one dissenting voice. It belongs to Cornell Belcher A Democratic strategist who has worked on each of Obama’s winning bids for the White House, among many other campaigns. Here’s what Belcher told me yesterday, long before the polls closed: “I know this goes against the narrative that Republicans have already been leading successfully, but the closer we get to voting by a majority of voters, the lower the likelihood of the Republicans being able to get a majority. There is no wave. Red in the data. This is supposed to be a bloodbath. This is supposed to be their wave election. They have all the structural advantages and momentum. If they can’t get 60 net House seats, it’s a fiasco.”

Cornell Belcher appears at a press conference in Washington, DC, Sunday, October 23, 2022.

By William B. Plowman/NBC/Getty Images.

There is still a lot of counting to be done, but turnout numbers in the mid-term for 2022 will likely exceed the usual level, which was recently around 37-40% of registered voters. And forget the Republicans, who have gained close to 60 seats in the House: The best they can do seems to be to capture about 30 seats. Which will be enough for the Republicans to get a majority and make a lot of noise over the next two years. But it is a long distance from the wave.

So how have Democrats challenged the modern midterm history and the conventional wisdom of 2022? It is worth considering some individual competitions and one trend is prevalent. The critical race in the Pennsylvania Senate demonstrated the value of having a unique and persuasive candidate who reaches out to middle-class voters on economic and cultural issues — particularly when the Republican opponent is candy. John FettermanCampaign Team – Led by Brendan McPhillips, Rebecca Katz, and Witterman’s wife, Giselle—He could not only endure Fetterman’s three-month emergency absence from the campaign trail when he suffered a near-fatal stroke. They filled the void with a clever and clever campaign on social media Mohamed Oz As a fraud and carpet pager. Fetterman’s doctors, who brought him back into credible fighting form, also deserve credit. Michigan Governor, Gretchen Whitmer— who dealt with a life-threatening drama two years ago — relied on similar originality to easily defeat her conservative Republican rival.

In multiple races—Hilary SchultenFor a seat in the Michigan House of Representatives, Wes MoreFor Governor in Maryland, JB Pritzkerfor Governor in Illinois, and Josh ShapiroFor the governor of Pennsylvania, to name a few – Democrats have placed a risky bet by funding extremist candidates in the Republican primaries that the theory is that they will be easier to beat in the general election. Each one paid off. Drawing stark distinctions was critical, as a California Democratic strategist Sean Clegg He told me he would be back in July. This is not the Democratic Party against the Republican Party. “It’s the Democratic Party against the anti-democratic party,” Clegg said. These candidates are the brown tribes of the Trump movement. We are faced with a choice as a country, and we can also make that stark choice up front.”

ru. Dobbs. Abortion rights. Shorten however you like, but the Supreme Court’s June ruling has been echoing constantly since the defeat of the anti-abortion referendum in Kansas in August and even the rejection of a similar measure in Kentucky last night. The effect was less direct, but nonetheless palpable, in the New York governor’s race as well. The incumbent is a Democrat Kathy Hochhol, a modest campaign for months that relied on spending millions on television advertising; The main theme of these declarations was Hochul’s pledge to protect the right to abortion in her state. She got plenty of help motivating Democratic voters on that front from her opponent, the right-wing Republican Congressman. Lee Zelden, which co-sponsored a bill in the House of Representatives to grant full personal rights to fetuses.

However, even with effective last-minute Democratic discontent at the prospect of Hochul losing — Biden flew to campaign with her and from the left wing congresswoman. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Suddenly take to the streets with the Governor – Hochul’s winning margin will likely end in the middle of the singles. Its weakness was reflected in five major races in New York, all of which went to Republicans, which may eventually end up determining control of the House of Representatives. It was the most painful loss Sean Patrick Maloney, Run for a sixth term in the Hudson Valley, north of the city. That district, and many others, was a new district, constituted by a special master appointed by a Republican state judge, in response to a proposed redistricting map that would have favored the New York Democrats, a map propelled in part by … Maloney, in his book His Role As chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Given the surprising results across the country, it appears that Maloney did a great job of helping get Democrats elected elsewhere, and he was poor at holding onto his seat: The district that Maloney chose to run for Biden was by 10 points in 2020.

Speaking of the big picture: Belcher has got the last word. The biggest trend he’s pointing to from mid-term is generation. “There are really two voters, one bigger than him and one smaller than him, fighting for control of this country in two completely different directions,” he says. For example: Young people helped save Fetterman in Pennsylvania, and old people took control of it Ron DeSantis in Florida. Abortion rights are of great importance to voters in their twenties and thirties, as do climate change, student loans, threats to democracy and racism. There will be a great deal of turmoil in the next couple of years undermining the dynamism. But in 2024, Joe Biden will be the oldest president ever to run for reelection — and to win, he’ll need to make sure younger Democratic voters keep showing up.

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